Read about it!

It will be nice to see the electoral maps that rely on the most recent poll flipping to Ohio (get right on that Jerome!). A key take away from this poll:

By a 44-39 percent margin, Florida voters want a Democrat in the White House. Ohio voters want a Democrat 44-35 percent and Pennsylvania voters are seeing blue 50-32 percent.

So Obama has room to grow, dispelling the smearing portrayals of him foisted by the rethugs, such as with the convention appearance last night, will likely help with that effort.

    John McCain is set to announce his choice of running mate on Friday at the Nutter Center (insert your own joke here) in Dayton, Ohio. According to Ed Rendell, that will be followed by a repeat announcement on Saturday in southwestern Pennsylvania.

    So there's no question that this pick will be aimed squarely at the so-called "white working-class" (translation: chronically unemployed lumpenproletariat) of Appalachia and its environs. In other words, voters who can be baffled by bullshit, in the view of the Republican campaign wizard-class.

    Every indication points to Rob Portman as the pick, despite the requisite head-fakes designed to throw us off-track. I've explored Mr. Portman in two recent diary segments here and here.

And the Winning Ticket Is -- Obama / Biden 08:

Barack Obama made an excellent choice with his selection of Delaware Senator Joe Biden to be his running mate.  On Saturday I spent the day working at the Democratic booth at the Centre County Grange Fair and throughout the day people were asking if the announcement had been made.  Everyone I spoke with expressed positive opinions about the choice.  If this is any indication of the type of qualified people Barack Obama will surround himself with as President, we can all rest assured that our country will be headed in a better direction come January of 2009.

The daily trivia question at the Democratic booth was "What Pennsylvania town was Joe Biden's hometown?"  I'm usually pretty good at trivia but Kim Bierly had to tell me the answer was Scranton PA.

For months now I have been hearing about Obama's problem in Pennsylvania with working class whites.  I never believed it.  Now I'm scared.

I heard this on CNN's Late Edition today:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: You talk about how much you're worried about being able to pay the bills. Well, ladies and gentlemen, that's not a worry John McCain has to worry about.

It's a pretty hard experience. He'll have to figure out which of the seven kitchen tables to sit at.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: All right. A clever line referring to how many homes the McCains own. But what do you think?

SPECTER: Well, I think that when the voter goes into that polling booth, he's going to be a lot more concerned about what Russia's doing in Jordan -- Georgia on their invasion or what's happening with Iran and their developing a nuclear bomb.

More below the fold...

Yeah, I said it. And I’m not just saying  it because I live in the far awesomer SE portion of Pennsylvania (where, incidentally, Joe Biden is proudly considered our third Senator).

I say FRACK SCRANTON for the following two reasons:

You may - or may not - have heard that McCain's people have filed a lawsuit to kick Libertarian candidate Bob Barr off the Pennsylvania ballot. This is not only antidemocratic and cowardly on McCain's part - it's also a flip flop from his own position in 2000, yet another indication that McCain's values are written in smoke.

Carly Fiorina, known best for reassuring ex-Clinton backers that John McCain voted for Ginsburg/Souter/et cetra's confirmation even while McCain says he'd never appoint them, while also hinting that McCain won't give a preference to viagra over contraceptives when it comes to medical coverage(actually, he does!), has met privately with the brother of Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania.  I am not kidding you.   Hillary Clinton's own brother is planning to vote Republican after supporting her in the primaries.

Wasn't Clinton suppose to reach out to these people?  Per the Times Tribune of Scranton, Pennsylvania;

Campaign Receiving Important Endorsements:

As we move into the fall campaign season, the McCracken for Congress campaign is receiving several important endorsements.   Earlier this month we were honored to receive the endorsement from the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.   This is a key endorsement from an organization that is a leader in supporting the rights of the working people, not only in the 5th district, but in Pennsylvania and across the nation.

Today I went to my first Obama event as a volunteer. The purpose of the event was organizing the 14th ward. The 14th ward is part of the city of Pittsburgh and it lies a few miles east of Pittsburgh downtown.It is the biggest ward in the city of Pittsburgh. Winning big in the 14th ward is key to winning big in Allegheny County which is key to winning Pennsylvania. And Obama's path to victory probably includes a win in Pennsylvania.

When I went to this meeting I really had no clue as to what to expect, so I thought I would post this diary to share my impressions and experiences. The overall purpose of the meeting was to form "neighborhood teams" that would cover all the neighborhoods in the 14th ward. Each team consists of a volunteer coordinator, a data entry specialist, and other team members with more flexible roles.

I'm well into my staycation in New Jersey - wherein I fall in love with my home area - by exploring the wonderful things I don't do because they don't seem "exotic."

I live near the place that George Washington crossed the Delaware, turning himself from a lunatic mob leader into a brilliant military genius in a few hours time.   I have availed myself frequently of a few of the historical treasures of this area, including some of the splendid re-enactments of colonial life.   Every 4th of July here on PA's side of the Washington's Crossing Parks, local citizens show dress up as colonials and show us how to spin wool into yarn, how to bake bread, how to be a wheelwright, how to print incidiary political phamplets and, of course, how to shoot cannons at any redcoats who might be in the area.   The re-enactors are all splendidly informed people and if you really want to understand the industrial basis of American life, this would be a great place to learn about it.

Today I want to report on a place I have never visited in 13 years of living in this most magnificent place:   The Bowman's Hill Wildflower Preserve, which is a short distance South of New Hope, PA (About 100 km north of Philadelphia.)   This will be a short throwaway diary.

Today I spent a few hours with a group of Armed Guard and Merchant Marine veterans.  Their monthly meeting is always held at Hoss’s though it is difficult to navigate a buffet with canes and walkers.  The group is 59 strong if all are in attendance – some bring their spouses or are driven there by a relative since they can travel 30 miles to be there.  

The new Franklin & Marshall poll shows a 44-36% lead for Obama. Solid numbers.

But what is downright fascinating is the source of Mac's weakness: apparently independent voters are somewhat disgusted by him:

http://www.wgal.com/...

http://www.fandm.edu/...

Obama leads McCain by eight points, 44 percent to 36 percent among registered voters, and by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters.

Poll director Terry Madonna said that the survey shows that Obama hasn't been able to pull away despite signs it should be a big Democratic year in Pennsylvania.

"He's on third base, but so far he can't seem to find a way to get home," Madonna said. "Look at the underlying trends. The economy is a huge issue. Bush's ratings are terrible. But too many voters are concerned about Obama's experience, and don't yet have enough confidence in his ability to lead."

When asked whether, regardless of how they plan to vote in November, they would be concerned if Obama were elected president, 51 percent said yes.

http://www.philly.com/...

With an uninspiring candidate, an enthusiasm gap and a host of fundamentals against them, obstruction and suppression is really all the Republicans have left.  You can see exactly where they're worried from this story:

As Barack Obama tries to draw hundreds of thousands of new voters to the polls, Republicans are beginning to scrutinize registrants' eligibility as both sides draw a major battle line over voting rights.

Republicans are moving to examine surges in voter registrations in some states. A Republican lawyers group held a national training session on election law over the weekend that included campaign attorneys for Sen. John McCain and other Republican leaders. One session discussed how party operatives can identify and respond to instances of voter fraud.

There are two battlegrounds:

Drill Here, Drill Now -- But What Are The Oil Companies Planning?

Nationally, Drill Here, Drill Now seems to be the only issue where Republicans are gaining any traction with voters during 2008.  For those who don’t know, Drill Here, Drill Now started on the website www.americansolutions.com.  A couple of mouse clicks on the American Solutions website will take you to a screen with friendly welcome from none other than former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.  

With the Olympics begun, the focus of the world is on sports rather than politics.  Now it is time for the candidates for Congress to raise money and get ready for a brutal two months of fall to capture their seat in the House of Representatives.  The Democrats have the majority in the House and are likely to keep it.  However, with so many freshman Democrats, the Republicans are aiming to get back some of what they lost in 2006.  Still, the Republicans are the ones who likely will lose seats.  The NRCC has already told GOP candidates they won’t get as much support as they did in 2006.  Many GOP candidates have retired or resigned, while far fewer Democratic seats are open.  The GOP already lost 3 seats so far this year alone.  In fact, if you account for the three seats Republicans already lost, the Democratic list would be 21 instead of 24.
Below is an overview of all the critical seats of contention in 2008.  The Democrats have 24 seats that may be vulnerable, with 16 seats that are clearly vulnerable (including the three seats they picked up in 2008), while the Republicans appear to have 47 seats that may be vulnerable, with 30 that are clearly vulnerable.  
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.

Last week I had a huge influx of readers interested in my piece on Eric Cantor. Seems I'm not the only one thinking McCain might just pick Cantor. I think it's a longshot, but possible.

Things are getting very hectic personally. This may be the last newsletter for a few weeks or more. We will be on vacation in California for a couple of weeks and I will have Grand Jury duty after that. Plus work is exploding for me and Joy's dissertation is overdue. Even politically, I will need to put some extra effort into my friend, Devin Cohen's primary election September 9th. But this newsletter I cover some pretty critical stuff.